PROST! German Chancellor Angela Merkel holds a glass of Koestritzer, a local beer speciality, as she attends an election campaign event in Bad Koestritz, eastern Germany, on September 15, 2013. AFP / DPA / Bodo Schackow

BERLIN, Germany – German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Bavarian allies scored a resounding win in a state vote Sunday, September 15, provisional results showed, giving her a boost one week ahead of a general election.

However the pro-business Free Democrats, junior partners in Bavaria and under Merkel in Berlin, tallied a disastrous 3%, crashing out of the regional parliament.

The results, from Germany’s second-most populous region, point to a strong likelihood that Merkel will clinch a third term next Sunday, September 22.

But they also raise the prospect of a nail-biter finish to see whether she can continue her center-right government or will have to form a “grand coalition” with her traditional rivals, the Social Democrats.

“The triumph of Christian Democrats’ Bavarian sister party (CSU) belies the sizable risks for them at the national level,” news website Spiegel Online wrote, saying that a grand coalition now looked more likely.

“The good poll results in recent weeks and now the excellent CSU result could lead many CDU voters to think it’s all over (and stay home on election day). Of even more concern to the Christian Democrats is the weakness of their coalition partner.”

The conservative ruling Christian Social Union captured an absolute majority of seats in the Bavarian parliament with 48.8% of the votes, according to provisional results from 73 of the 90 polling districts.

Its strong victory means it can drop the FDP and govern alone.

“One Bavarian in two voted for us,” incumbent state premier Horst Seehofer told cheering supporters.

“That is a huge vote of confidence.”

Merkel campaigned hard in the state’s world-famous beer tents, pointing out that a big win in Bavaria would lend momentum to her bid for another term at the helm of Europe’s top economic power.

She did not make any immediate comment on the results but was expected to give her views on Monday, September 16.

National polls give Merkel’s conservatives a lead of around 14 points over the main opposition Social Democrats (SPD), who scored just under 20% of the vote in Bavaria, historically a conservative state, according to the early results.

The 19.9% recorded was not far above the SPD’s historic low showing of 18.6% in 2008.

However Merkel’s chief election rival, Peer Steinbrueck of the SPD, took heart from the Free Democrats’ catastrophe.

“This is the 13th state election in a row in which the centre-right love match failed to win,” he told public television.

“There is a good chance that this will also happen on the federal level in a week’s time.”

The ecologist Greens turned in a dismal 8%, in keeping with a downward trend on the national level.

The CSU has ruled Bavaria uninterrupted for 56 years with a winning strategy of “laptops and lederhosen” — high-tech business savvy coupled with proud tradition.

The CSU saw big gains from its 43% score at the last election in 2008, when it lost its absolute majority.

Some 9.5 million were eligible to vote in the wealthy, predominantly Catholic southern region that is home to industrial giants such as BMW, Audi and Siemens.

Pollsters said the poor showing in Bavaria by the Free Democrats could in fact give them a boost in the September 22 general election.

Voters who would like to see the Merkel alliance continue and who are concerned about the FDP’s poor showing in Bavaria might now want to give votes to the party, dragging on the conservatives’ own score.

That prospect led many Christian Democrats to warn against any “pity” campaign for the FDP.

“The FDP will be fine on its own — stay cool, don’t give away our votes,” federal environment minister Peter Altmaier wrote on Twitter.

FDP leader Philipp Roesler called the result a “bitter defeat”.

“But it shows now is the time to fight, dear friends,” he said to applause from party supporters in Berlin.

“This is a wake-up call for all liberals in Germany.”

Merkel led a left-right grand coalition during her first four-year term. At the last election in 2009, a thumping 14.6% result for the Free Democrats allowed Merkel to form a government with the conservatives’ traditional allies. – Rappler.com