What is interesting in this election is among many other things that the electoral mood, the kind of attitude and atmosphere in Germany is not very different from 4 years ago. Already 4 years ago we complained about the same things that we complain about this time that Angela Merkel is doing a very boring campaign, there are not really super controversial issues, that the CDU and SPD are too close to each other and where they differ from each other, it is smaller things and not fundamental things.

So, everybody says it is a pretty boring campaign and it is true. Also there is no really any mood of change. People do not want change at a large scale in Germany. Partly this is because the German economic situation is so strong. But people also don’t believe that there will be change. They don’t believe that there is a viable power option beyond Angela Merkel and so people who don’t want change and who don’t believe that the others can actually take over, they of course don’t make a very exciting campaign.

So, this is the situation as we have it now. This has only changed a little bit because of the campaign dwell that the two had when they had a debate on TV that brought a little bit more juice to the campaign but not really a whole lot. And so far it doesn’t look like there is going to be any major kind of movement.

So, what can we expect from this elections? I think most people looking at the dynamics in Germany now predicted Angela Merkel will come back as the next chancellor. There is a small possibility that this might be even in her current coalition with the Liberal Democrats in Germany but more likely perhaps in a grand coalition with the social democrats or the conservatives in the center-left party kind of moved together and formed a grand coalition once more which is the combination that we had 4 years ago.

So, this is what people expect at the moment. We just had election on Bavaria last Sunday and the election in Bavaria showed that the conservative party in Bavaria scored very strongly but more importantly I think what the elections there showed was that the social democrats and the greens, the left part of the spectrum, the opposition parties in the current consolation are not really gaining a momentum.

They are not really out there with the catching-up race where they come back from behind, gain a whole lot of votes. So, we don’t see a highly motivated opposition that thinks it can still beat Angela Merkel. So, that is what we can expect in terms of outcome. Angela Merkel will very likely be the next chancellor of Germany again. And then finally what policy outcome will it have? I think in European and foreign policy Angela Merkel has made up her mind.

She made three basic decisions: she wants to keep Germany out of geopolitics, there are no geopolitical, geostrategic ambitions of Germany even though Angela Merkel’s western partners always press for a more assertive, more force-coming Germany, but she basically wants to keep Germany outside this. Secondly, she has decided that she wants to continue very steadfastly her path that she picked for the tackling of the Euro crisis.

She has decided that she is willing to guarantee the Euro and some of the crisis economies in the south of Europe with German taxpayers money, but in return she wants structural reform in these countries. This is what they call austerity and this is what they blame her for. But she is going to stick to this and I don’t think that if there is not something dramatic going to happen, this is the kind of course and path that she will probably stick to.

And the third decision that she has made is that she doesn’t want any political integration in Europe, so no more great step forward in the integration process, so we will see more willing and dealing between member states but no more Brussels if you will. I think these are the three pillars of Angela Merkel’s foreign and European policy and I think if there is no something enormously unforeseeable and enormously catastrophic happening, I think she will try to stick to these as much as she can and I think this is basically where we stand.