BERLIN (MNI) – Five days ahead of Germany’s national elections an opinion
poll released Tuesday showed Chancellor Angela Merkel center-right CDU/CSU-FDP
coalition without majority to continue governing.

In the latest survey by pollsters Forsa, combined support for Merkel’s
center-right CDU/CSU bloc and the free-market orientated FDP stood at 44%, down
one point from the previous survey.

The other parties currently represented in parliament – the center-left
SPD, the ecological Greens and the post-communist Left party – remained at 44%.

Asked which party they would vote for if elections were to take place this
Sunday, 39% backed the CDU/CSU, unchanged from the previous survey. The FDP fell
one point 5%, the minimum share necessary to be represented in parliament. In a
state election in the southern German state of Bavaria last Sunday, the FDP only
scored some 3%.

Ironically, the weak result in the Bavarian elections could give the FDP a
boost for the national elections at the expense of Merkel’s conservatives. Many
adherents of the Christian Democrats could now feel tempted to vote for the FDP
on September 22 to make sure that the liberals don’t fall below the 5% threshold
as in Bavaria.

The SPD remained in the latest Forsa survey at 25%. The Greens stayed at 9%
and the Left was still credited with 10%.

The representative poll commissioned by German weekly Stern and RTL
television was carried out among 2,502 respondents from September 10 to 16. The
statistical error margin is +/-2.5 percentage points.

Tuesday’s poll again signals that the election is far from being decided.
Most polls over recent weeks show the ruling coalition and the opposition in a
neck-to-neck race. Merkel herself has repeatedly stressed that she expects a
tight election result. Given that a relatively large number of voters is still
undecided, the race could be literally won or lost in the last minute.

Given that the mainstream parties have excluded a coalition with the Left
party, the most likely scenario for the moment is a grand coalition government
of Merkel’s conservatives with the Social Democrats or another victory of the
ruling CDU/CSU-FDP coalition.

Both the CDU/CSU and the Greens have repeatedly rejected the idea of
governing together and the FDP has said it would not enter into a tri-partite
coalition with the SPD and the Greens.

Merkel and Steinbrueck have said they do not rule out the eventuality of
another grand coalition government. Between 2005 and 2009 the CDU/CSU and the
SPD already governed together and steered the country quite successfully through
the global financial turmoil.

A grand coalition government would likely soften somewhat Germany’s tough
austerity stance in the Eurozone crisis. The Social Democrats advocate for more
growth-stimulating policies in Germany and the Eurozone.

–MNI Berlin Bureau; tel: +49 30-226-20580; email: twidder@mni-news.com

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