Bavaria CPI

November: -0.1% m/m, +2.1% y/y
October: +0.1% m/m, +2.3% y/y

—

Pan-German CPI

MNI median forecast: -0.1% m/m, +1.9% y/y
MNI forecast range: -0.2% to +0.1% m/m

October: flat m/m, +2.0% y/y

—

BERLIN (MNI) – Consumer prices in the western German state of
Bavaria fell back 0.1% in November, dampening the annual inflation rate
to +2.1% from +2.3%, the state statistics office said Wednesday.

The monthly result is in line with the median forecast for
pan-German CPI in a MNI survey of analysts. North Rhine-Westphalia and
Saxony also posted a dip of 0.1%, while Brandenburg and Hesse registered
declines of 0.2%.

Downward pressure on monthly inflation in Bavaria came from energy
prices, with motor fuel down 2.4%, heating oil down 1.5% and household
energy down 0.2%.

Packaged holiday tours fell 1.2%. Hotel and restaurant services
decreased by 0.9%.

Upward pressure came from food prices, which climbed 1.4% on the
month, with seasonal food up 3.9%.

Annual inflation was marked by higher energy and food prices.
Heating oil prices rose 4.8%, household energy was up 3.9% and motor
fuel climbed 2.6%.

Food prices were 4.4% higher than a year ago, with seasonal produce
up a whopping 10.3%. Prices for clothing and shoes were up 2.4% and
those for alcoholic drinks and tobacco products up 2.7%.

CPI excluding heating oil and motor fuel was flat on the month and
2.0% higher on the year.

The Finance Ministry said last week that inflation will likely
remain moderate for the time being, pointing to slowing input prices due
to the weakening global economy. Annual producer price inflation fell to
a three-month low in October.

The latest PMI poll showed input cost inflation also hitting a
three-month low in November (53.2), while output charges posted their
biggest decline (48.8) since early 2010.

The OECD said Tuesday that “the costs of producing renewable energy
as well as strengthening domestic demand and wage growth are projected
to keep [German] consumer price inflation close to 2% in 2013 and 2014.”

Some analysts, however, expect domestic inflation to pick up over
the medium term, arguing that monetary policy in the Eurozone is too
expansionary for Germany.

For detailed information see data table on MNI MainWire.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@mni-news.com

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